ChainIDE#17 我们离元宇宙还有多远?
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我们离元宇宙还有多远?
工业革命解放了人类的双手,信息时代解放了人类的大脑,元宇宙将解放人类的精神家园。1000个人心目中有1000个元宇宙,但也无可厚非,“元宇宙” 不是一个单一的、全面的定义。元宇宙最好被理解为 "移动互联网的进一步发展" 。这是因为元宇宙不会从根本上取代互联网,而是在它的基础上进行迭代改造。
也许今天和明天,元宇宙只是一个在线虚拟世界——就像 Decentraland、Crypto Voxel 和 The Sandbox——你可以在其中玩快速游戏、在艺术画廊浏览 NFT 或进行在线聚会。但是在 5 年、10 年或 20 年之后,元宇宙也许会取代您在网上甚至线下所做的大部分工作。终极的元宇宙联通物理世界和数字世界,将成为未来人类的生活方式,重塑数字经济体系。
《头号玩家》和《失控玩家》的世界离我们已经不再遥远,不久的将来,我们就能进入诸如oasis、free city、free life的游戏中游览,我们在元宇宙中工作、恋爱、生活、探险...
那么,我们将采取什么路径来实现这个元宇宙的未来?通过 Facebook 的中心化科技路线?还是通过新的去中心化模型?
未来3-5年,元宇宙将进入雏形探索期,VR/AR、NFT、AI、云、PUGC游戏平台、数字人、数字孪生城市等领域渐进式技术突破和商业模式创新将层出不穷。中长期看,元宇宙的投资机会包括:GPU、3D图形引擎、云计算和IDC、高速无线通信、互联网和游戏公司平台、数字孪生城市、产业元宇宙、太阳能等可持续能源等。
腾讯CEO马化腾在《三观》序言中说到,目前从实时通信到音视频等一系列技术已经准备好,计算能力快速提升,推动信息接触、人机交互的模式发生更加丰富的变化,VR等新技术、新的硬件和软件在不同场景下的推动,即将迎来下一波全真互联网的升级。我们认为,当前技术条件仍然是步入元宇宙时代的门槛,未来在通讯和算力、交互方式、内容生产、经济系统和标准协议等领域的突破将陆续拉近与元宇宙时代的距离。
可以将元宇宙的发展格局演进分为三个阶段:
未来5-8年,随着技术端的不断发展,我们预计各大互联网巨头公司和一些专注于游戏、社交的头部公司将发展出一系列独立的虚拟平台。
预计2030年前后,随着泛娱乐沉浸式体验平台已经实现长足发展,元宇宙将基于泛娱乐沉浸式体验平台的基础向更多的体验拓展,我们预计部分消费、教育、会议、工作等行为将转移至虚拟世界,同时随着虚拟世界消费行为不断升温,并随着数字人民币等数字货币和基于NFT的数字信息资产化,经济系统开始建立,随之带动部分虚拟平台间实现交易、社交等交互。
预计2030年后,各个虚拟平台将作为子宇宙,逐渐形成一套完整的标准协议,实现各子宇宙的聚合并形成真正意义上的元宇宙;这些子宇宙依然保持独立性,只是通过标准协议将交互、经济等接口统一标准化实现互联互通,元宇宙由此进入千行百业的数字化的全真互联网阶段。
讨论:
1.当有一天,人类80%的日常生活都在元宇宙中进行时,会是怎样的场景?
2.你认为现阶段有哪些投资机遇?
3.谈一谈你了解的大厂布局。
4.分享一下你对《失控玩家》的看法。
延申阅读:
1.Metaverse元宇宙深度报告:创造独立于现实世界的虚拟数字世界
欢迎加入我们的讨论会~
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